Housing-price recovery hits new milestone

by J. Craig Anderson - Feb. 25, 2010
The Arizona Republic

The Valley's epic home-price slide reached another recovery milestone in January, the first month in nearly three years with a single-digit annual rate of decline, according to preliminary data from Arizona State University's Repeat Sales Index.

ASU professor Karl Guntermann said January's year-over-year decline of 9 percent continues a stabilizing trend that has been consistent for several months.

The rate was 17 percent in November, and preliminary figures indicate a 13 percent rate of decline in December, according to Guntermann.

"The slowdown in the rate of decline has been accelerating for several months," he said. "If the present trend continues, prices will level off later this spring."

An index of zero percent would mean home prices were roughly the same as they were a year earlier, Guntermann said.

That point appears to have been reached for foreclosed-home sales, based on preliminary data. Guntermann said November's annual rate of decline for foreclosed homes was 9 percent, and preliminary data show it falling to 2 percent in December and zero percent in January.

The index measures differences in the average price of selected homes that have sold multiple times. Its purpose is to provide the most accurate reflection possible of the actual market, and it is the same methodology used for the nationally popular S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The median sale price for foreclosures continued on a steady decline that barely has budged in more than a year.

The overall median price for non-foreclosure sales in January was $155,000, compared with $160,000 in December and $166,000 in November.

The index does not correlate exactly with year-over-year price changes, Guntermann said, because there is a sort of reverse momentum built into the calculation that lowers the index if it's on the rise, and raises it if it's on the decline.

It has been dropping for a record 33 months since home prices peaked in mid-2006.

Still, Guntermann said that is likely to change within the next few months as prices bottom out and remain static or recover slightly.

Preliminary data show the median home price in January was $125,000, down from $133,000 in December and $135,000 in November.

Stocks rally on housing data

Pending home sales rise. D.R. Horton posts its 1st profit in nearly 3 years. UPS sees shipments picking up in 2010.
by Elizabeth Strott on Tuesday, February 2, 2010

A better-than-expected report on pending home sales and strong results from homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) helped ease concerns about the housing market and lift stocks today.

The National Association of Realtors' index of pending home sales rose 1% in December after tumbling 16.4% in November. Pending sales reflect deals that have been signed but not completed. Sales were up 10.9% from the same month a year ago. The index has risen for nine out of the past 10 months as buyers work to take advantage of homebuyer tax credits extended by the government to prop up the market.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) was up 111 points to 10,20297. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) had gained 19 points to 2,190, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) had added 14 points to 1,103.

Crude oil soared today on an improving economic outlook, rising $2.76 a barrel, or 3.7%, to $77.19. Gold continued its ascent, rising $10.50 to $1,115 an ounce. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury ticked down 2 basis points to 3.63%.

D.R. Horton swings to profit

D.R. Horton's shares were up $1.27, or 10.7%, to $13.18 after the the nation's second-biggest homebuildler posted its first quarterly profit in nearly three years.

The Fort Worth, Texas, company said it swung to a profit of $192 million, a huge improvement from the net loss of $62.6 million it posted in the same quarter a year ago.

The stock was up $1.38, or 11.6%, to $13.29.

UPS sales slip, but Dow's revenue rises

Shares of United Parcel Service (UPS), the world's biggest package-delivery company, rose on an optimistic forecast for this year. The Atlanta company, a bellwether of consumer spending and business activity, forecast gains in package volume, pricing and profit for 2010.

"The numbers for Q4 were a little bit better than what they had previously guided, but the guidance for 2010 looks really good," Arthur Hatfield, a transportation analyst at investment bank Morgan Keegan, said in an interview on CNBC. "Overall, it looks like things are going to get a little better throughout 2010."

Dow Chemical (DOW) earned $87 million, or 8 cents per share, in the fourth quarter, a turnaround from a loss of $1.55 billion, or $1.68 per share, in the same period of 2008. Excluding special items, earnings were 18 cents a share, beating the Street by 7 cents.

Sales at Dow Chemical rose 15% to $12.5 billion, thanks in part to sustained growth in emerging regions. The company cautioned that growth in the United States and Europe will continue to lag amid high unemployment. Dow shares were off 76 cents, or 2.7 3%, to $27.87.

Historical Phoenix, AZ Homes Information and Links to Free MLS Searches: Mayor Phil Gordon to Discuss Historic Carbon Emission Reduction and Utility Preservation from Certified Emerald Green Phoenix Residence

Historical Phoenix, AZ Homes Information and Links to Free MLS Searches: Mayor Phil Gordon to Discuss Historic Carbon Emission Reduction and Utility Preservation from Certified Emerald Green Phoenix Residence